Pill of progress: what are the chances of a drug becomes for the market?

The following is a guest post by Chad Parmet, a research associate with the Foundation for informed medical decisions.  Chad meets, assesses and summarizes the current medical research to support decision-making programs shared ® new or revised. Prior to joining the Foundation, he worked as a medical writer. He holds a Bachelor's degree in physics from the University of Pennsylvania. In the past, he revised many stories to HealthNewsReview.org. (Foundation is funding this project, but has no control over what is published here).

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Many times I read that researchers have cooked some new wonder drug that will change the world. But many of these miracles never materialised. That is why one of the criteria HealthNewsReview.org rates articles on if they ever set appropriate expectations about the availability of the hot new thing.

But what should be a drug that is still being tested our expectations?

A compound can do it in a prescription, it must run a gauntlet of studies in animals and humans. FDA analyzes the results and decide whether to approve it for use in Americans.

So I've been thinking: what are the chances that a drug in the midst of this challenge, generating headlines along the way, will never make it our medicine cabinets?

I poked around Google, PubMed and trip to evidence about these probabilities. Haven't seen any meta-analyses. I found a series of studies that used different estimates to produce chances. Clearly, I can't make a reliable estimate of the odds without finding a solid, systematic meta-analysis of studies of high quality. That said, the estimates were at the same level. And the stadium was interesting.

The chart below is my "essence" of the results of the recent, reviewed studies that — in my opinion — were more generalizable to small-molecule drugs that seek their first indications of the FDA.

The odds that a drug to each phase of the research
will eventually make it to the market

 

The essence of Adams Bratner & Davis et al 2006, 2011, DiMasi et al 2010, Kola & Landis 2004 and Paul et al 2010

Here are some important caveats about these numbers:

I could go. This is not an academic study, just an exercise.

With these limitations in mind, the true essence of exercise is that I take experimental drugs seem to have a lower likelihood of doing so on the market than what one would expect from the revolutionary tone used in typical news coverage next miracle drug.

I would love to know if there is a formal meta-analysis or a summary of the best literature, that I missed. If you know of one, please leave a comment below.

Chad Parmet

Disclaimer: all searches and conclusions are my own and do not represent the views and opinions of my employer, the basis of informed medical decisions.

 

Girls In Progress

AppId is over the quota
AppId is over the quota

May 22 2012

by Jessica Mayorga, Director of Marketing, NCLR

(This was first posted to the ALMA Awards 411 blog.)

A new film, Girl in Progress, was released recently, and just in time for National Teen Pregnancy Prevention Month. Simply stated, teen pregnancy, sexuality, and the drama of growing up are topics in the Latino community that merit attention and frank discussions.

Girl in Progress speaks to these issues and puts a Hollywood spotlight on a topic that has long been taboo in Latino households but that very much needs to be addressed. We’re excited to see past ALMA nominees and popular Latino talent drive this film and encourage us to change these experiences for our families. Eva Mendes plays a starring role in Girl in Progress as an overwhelmed and preoccupied single mother of an attention-starved preteen (played by Cierra Ramirez) seeking her own identity and independence. The film vividly and sometimes painfully demonstrates that a parent’s attention and interest in a child’s life makes all the difference and can be the deciding factor for success. We watch the daughter, Ansiedad, make unguided and perhaps devastating decisions as she acts out, desperate for her mother to just be a mom to her. This portrayal of a family dynamic that is not uncommon in Latino communities brings forward issues of parent-child communication, sexuality, and the need for honest and open dialogue at home.

May is National Teen Pregnancy Prevention Month; it’s the perfect time for families to watch this movie and use this opportunity to break the ice about issues that we may not always feel comfortable talking about. We know that too many of our daughters enter this cycle of teen pregnancy, and that it often interrupts—if not permanently suspends—educational aspirations, career opportunities, and the opportunity to just be a girl and live out their dreams. This film, and National Teen Pregnancy Prevention Month, remind us that we can no longer be silent about these tough topics.

We applaud Hiram Martinez for this screenplay and the excellent Latino actors who brought the story to life.

At ALMA, we advocate for media responsibility, media literacy, and respectable roles for Latinos in American entertainment. We believe in educating Hollywood and educating audiences. We applaud this film for complementing our mission as we strive to tackle challenges in our communities and strengthening opportunities for Latinos of all ages.

Issues: NCLR ALMA Awards
Geography:California, Far West, Midwest, Northeast, Southeast, Texas

View the original article here